Can Mike Dodds use Sunderland's last win over Leeds as an example

Leeds are engrossed in a captivating title race in the Championship alongside Leicester City and Ipswich Town as we head into the final month of the season which means there is very little room for error for Daniel Farke’s side. Sunderland, in contrast, have regressed, having seen their season go up in smoke pretty much following their triumphant 1-0 success over Leeds in the reverse fixture back in December as they now languish in mid-table having won just one of their last 10 games.  

Farke’s side arrived at the Stadium of Light in a period of transition for Sunderland, following the dismissal of Tony Mowbray, and left empty-handed after what is largely considered as Dodds’ finest moment of any of his three interim periods in charge when masterminding a tactical shut-out against a Leeds team who had lost just three of their first 20 games back in the Championship after last season’s relegation from the Premier League.

 

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Dodds’ set-up led to Leeds’ second-lowest expected goals (xG) of the season at 0.58 – their lowest coming when losing by the same scoreline at St. Andrew’s against Birmingham City on the second weekend over the season when registering an xG of 0.42. Dodds shuffled his pack from the win over west Bromwich Albion just three days earlier where he lined up in a 4-2-3-1, this time approaching the game much more conservatively with wing-backs in a 5-2-3.

 

Sunderland held Leeds United to their second-lowest xG total of the season in the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light (Image: StatsBomb)

Jobe Bellingham’s winner meant Sunderland left their home ground that night just eight points behind Leeds in sixth place in the Championship table. They have won just five of their next 20 league games since. Leeds have won 15 of their 20.

It suggests Sunderland are in for a tough evening when they travel to Elland Road, a place where Leeds have taken 52 from a possible 60 points, their last defeat on home soil coming on May 28, 2023, the final day of the Premier League campaign in a 4-1 reverse to Tottenham Hotspur. Having won just five of their 19 home games last season, it’s been quite the turnaround from Farke and his side, irrespective of the difference in league.

 

How Sunderland interim head coach Mike Dodds set his side up against Leeds United in December (Image: StatsBomb)

But can Sunderland’s blueprint to success over Leeds in December be something Dodds is able to tap into on Tuesday night? The dynamics may have shifted in terms of the momentum at both clubs but Dodds was finally able to enjoy some success, tactically, in Saturday’s fixture with Bristol City, albeit Sunderland were held to a goalless draw.

“I've watched that game [against Leeds] back in the last few weeks, knowing this game was coming up, and I thought there was some stuff we did really well in the game and I thought there was some stuff I wasn't happy with,” said Dodds. “That's the type of person that I am. I'm very critical of myself.

“I think there's pockets of a lot of the games that I quite like but it isn't one that I jump to and go ‘yeah, that was my proudest moment.’

“It’s not going to be the same, that’s the reality, because the conditions are hugely different and I’ll take a level of criticism for my third stint. But I also sit here not being overly critical of myself because I know what I’ve had to deal with and I know I’ve done everything that I can possibly can.

“As always, there’ll be reflection points and in the summer will be a really important period for me to reflect on things which I have done well and things I need to be better with moving forward. But I think it will be completely different, the circumstances are completely different so I’m not comparing the two whatsoever.

“They've got Premier League quality. They're the type of figures [unbeaten at home] you would expect when you look at their squad, look at their players, their bench and players they don't have available, and I mean that respectfully to Leeds United.

“Look, it's going to be a tough game and you're probably bored of me saying it, there's no easy games in this league.”

 

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One thing Dodds did demonstrate in the reverse fixture was his flexibility. But having, arguably, juggled things around too much for his own good since taking over for a third time in February, there were elements to Saturday’s draw with Bristol City which could provide optimism he can do so again against Leeds on Tuesday.

Bristol City came to the Stadium of Light ranked No.1 in the Championship when it comes to stats such as pressures, counter pressures, aggression and defensive regains in the oppositions half per 90 minutes which basically means they are regarded as an effective high-pressing team when teams try and build out from the back, as is the case with most teams in the modern game.

To counteract that, Dodds played Bristol at their own game and set about a high press from Sunderland. Take the image below, for example, when Max O’Leary has possession of the ball, Sunderland have Jobe, the striker, as well as Jack Clarke, Adil Aouchiche and Chris Rigg advanced high in Bristol’s half of the field.

When Bristol City goalkeeper Max O'Leary has possession, Sunderland are high in their press from their front four of Jobe Bellingham, Jack Clarke, Adil Aouchiche and Chris Rigg (Image: Wyscout)

Bristol, as suggested like most, tried to play their way out from the back under Liam Manning but Sunderland got their triggers right as shown here when Aouchiche tags Jason Knight who is looking to receive the ball from George Tanner in a tight spot.

Tanner panics owing to both Jobe and Clarke’s advances but in behind Aouchiche you also have Dan Neil who is pressed high from a holding midfield role, Neil also dictating to Rigg where to move on the right side of the field.

Another example of Sunderland's controlled high pressing came when George Tanner was in possession. Jack Clarke and Jobe Bellingham force tanner into a risky pass into Jason Knight which is contested by Adil Aouchiche (Image: StatsBomb)

Another example early in the first half can be seen below when, again, Bristol have possession of the ball inside their own penalty area with as many as six Sunderland players now in Bristol’s defensive third of the field as both Neil and Pierre Ekwah join the advanced midfield players to press high up the pitch in an attempt to suffocate the away side.

Pierre Ekwah and Dan Neil, Sunderland's holding midfielders, also contributed to the press against Bristol City with six players in the opposition half (Image: Wyscout)

Sunderland have tried this under Dodds before, particularly in his first game back in interim charge against Swansea City in what transpired into a nightmare first half for Sunderland with their press being far more erratic than the controlled nature we saw here.

Take Clarke for example. Below he times his press from the left onto centre-back Zak Vyner perfectly which forces the defender into a problematic situation, particularly with Aouchiche positioned where he is.

Knight tries to combat that and help his team-mate by coming deep but the pass from Vyner is misplaced.

Jack Clarke triggers a press perfectly on Zak Vyner which forces a turnover to Sunderland (Image: Wyscout)

Vyner’s ball, instead, goes straight to Neil who plays an excellent first-time pass into Jobe who is now positioned on the edge of the penalty area. Both Jobe and Clarke have now split Bristol’s centre-backs, should the ball from Neil find it’s intended target.

Zak Vyner's pass went straight to Dan Neil who plays an excellent first-time ball into the path of Jobe Bellingham on the edge of the area. Both Jobe and Jack Clarke are now in space (Image: Wyscout)

Neil’s pass finds Jobe who then has the option of either turning and going for goal himself or playing a pass to Clarke, with Vyner caught between two players and unable to cover both.

Jobe plays a clever pass into the path of Clarke who gets a sight of goal back in the starting line-up from a six-week injury lay-off but O’Leary, not for the first time on the afternoon, came to Bristol’s rescue in parrying Clarke’s effort away.

Zak Vyner is now caught between both Jack Clarke and Jobe Bellingham on the edge of the area. Jobe has the option of turning and going for goal himself or looking for Clarke (Image: Wyscout)

Sunderland may not have won this game, and after a harrowing 5-1 defeat to Blackburn Rovers it hardly left supporters inspired when leaving the Stadium of Light, but it was a much better tactical performance, particularly in the first half. On another occasion, and with O’Leary not being in such inspired form, Sunderland would likely have won this game.

Max O'Leary makes a good save to his left to deny Jack Clarke, one of several key saves to earn Bristol City a point at the Stadium of Light (Image: Wyscout)

With that said, Sunderland would be naïve to head to Elland Road and deploy a similar approach against a Leeds side who welcome a high press from teams, with Farke’s side confident enough to play through that press themselves.

Leeds are ranked second in the division for counter-attacking shots per 90 minutes and equally give up the fewest shots in the Championship from a high press.

Farke’s side have the highest xG in the Championship per 90 minutes at 1.59, coupled with the lowest xG against at 0.78. Naturally, given their xG metric, Leeds attempt the most shots per-game on average but those shots come from the shortest distance in the league which suggests their own pressing play creates more entries into the box.

 

Leeds United are ranked second in the Championship when it comes to counter-attacking shots per 90 minutes while they give up the fewest shots in the league (24th) from a high press (Image: StatsBomb)

To combat that in December, Dodds was much more conservative and far less high-risk in his pressing.

In the game against Bristol City we saw how advanced Sunderland were when goalkeeper O’Leary had possession of the ball, in this example against Leeds when Illan Meslier has the ball at his feet, only three Sunderland players are in the opposition half – Abdoullah Ba the most advanced, with Alex Pritchard operating as a false nine between attack and midfield.

Sunderland were much less reserved in their press against Leeds United at the Stadium of Light. When goalkeeper Illan Meslier has possession, only three players are inside the Leeds half (Image: Wyscout)

Leeds’ biggest threat, of many, this season has been Crysencio Summerville. The talented wide forward has made 25 goal contributions this season with 17 goals and eight assists and he will, again, be key in the game at Elland Road.

Sunderland got a taste of what Summerville is about in December and the areas the 22-year-old takes up on the field when drifting in from the left wing. Take the example below, as Summerville exchanges with full-back Djed Spence, he clears a challenge from Ba as Leeds now attack with five players.

Equally, you can see Sunderland’s three centre-backs and two wing-backs all in position to deal with this threat – something Leeds routinely do.

Crysencio Summerville is arguably Leeds United's biggest threat and you can see there pockets of space he picks up off the left wing, on this occasion alongside Djed Spence. Leeds attack with five while Sunderland's back five remain present (Image: Wyscout)

Another example in the second half shows the same two players, Spence and Summerville, linking on the left as Summerville once more drifts in-field slightly. Leeds, again, have five players in attack on the edge of the Sunderland penalty area, matched up by Sunderland in defence.

Crysencio Summerville continued to pick up space inside left in the second half as Sunderland remained rigid in their back five against five Leeds United attackers (Image: Wyscout)

Stopping Summerville will be key for Sunderland. They tried that by any means at the Stadium of Light with the winger the most fouled player for Leeds on the night. Despite that, Sunderland’s job was one well done as they kept Summerville out of the box as far as his efforts at goal are concerned.

Sunderland restricted Crysencio Summerville to just four attempts at goal from outside the area (left) and did a good job of keeping the winger out of their penalty area throughout the game as shown by his successful match actions (right) (Image: StatsBomb)

Sunderland’s approach leant heavily on a productive counter-attacking philosophy, as well as trying to take advantage of set pieces – Jenson Seelt in particular denied from a corner by a wonderful save from Meslier, for example.

On the break, however, Dodds was able to count on his two wing-backs to great effect; Trai Hume and Niall Huggins. Huggins, a former Leeds academy graduate, produced an excellent display in tandem with Clarke on the left, while Hume was able to get his synergy with Ba right on the opposite flank with regards when to provide an overlap.

The example below, from the first half, demonstrates how key the pair were as the only two Sunderland players in the final third on this occasion.

Sunderland's wing-backs, Niall Huggins and Trai Hume, played a key role in their success against Leeds United earlier this season (Image: Wyscout)

Dodds won’t have Huggins at his disposal on Tuesday, after the full-back suffered a season-ending knee injury 11 days after this win over Leeds. Aji Alese’s return against Bristol City offers some encouragement for Dodds, although whether Alese is ready to start a game yet remains open for debate.

That could mean either Callum Styles or former Leeds defender Leo Hjelde will operate in the left-back or left wing-back role, which is unlikely to produce the same efficiency as Huggins did on that night in December.

It adds a greater focus to the fulcrum in the side in attack. In the reverse fixture that was Pritchard, who operated between the lines of attacking midfield and centre-forward, allowing wide attackers and deep runners to advance beyond him.

And you can see that with Pritchard’s significant role in Sunderland’s goal, both in the build-up and with his assist.

The image below shows Neil coming away with possession from a Leeds attack, Farke’s side with seven players inside the Sunderland half. Pritchard has dropped deep from his No.9 position on the teamsheet to provide an outlet for Neil, who is surrounded by four blue shirts.

Alex Pritchard's role as a 'false No.9' was also important for Sunderland as shown by how deep Pritchard would sometimes drop to aid his team-mates in the build-up to Sunderland's goal (Image: Wyscout)

Pritchard and Neil exchange a clever one-two to beat the initial counter-press from Leeds to set up an opportunity for Sunderland on the break instead.

Leeds have their three centre-backs remaining, but you can see how high up the pitch they are while Sunderland have threats from Neil in possession, Patrick Roberts through the centre and Huggins who is making a charge on the right having switched flanks due to an injury to Seelt, as well as Pritchard who has turned away on the left.

It shows how exposed Leeds can leave themselves should you win back possession and beat that initial counter-press.

Leeds have seven players in Sunderland's half but Sunderland are able to bypass them with a clever exchange between Dan Neil and Alex Pritchard to launch a counter-attack as Leeds' three centre-backs remain high up the pitch (Image: Wyscout)

To Leeds’ credit, they do get numbers back quite well to combat Sunderland’s break, but it is the deep runners who become a problem with Pritchard (pictured) and Jobe, who is just out of shot.

Leeds manage to get good numbers back to deal with Sunderland's counter-attack which is now led by Niall Huggins who drives into the area. It's the deep runs from midfield Leeds are unaware of, however (Image: Wyscout)

Huggins drags a number of defenders over to the right before rolling back to Neil, who started the move. Neil swings a hopeful ball into the box where both Roberts and Pritchard are, with Clarke and Jobe still making their advances.

Niall Huggins gives to Dan Neil to cross but, again, it is the runs from deep which are important with Jobe Bellingham in particular (Image: Wyscout)

Neil’s cross is disappointing and is easily cut out by Pascal Struijk, but the defender is only able to head as far as Pritchard who has held his run on the edge of the area.

Behind Pritchard, however, Jobe has continued his deep run into the box which goes untracked by both Archie Gray and Joe Rodon.

Dan Neil's cross is headed clear by Pascal Struijk as far as Alex Pritchard on the edge of the area. Pritchard, who helped start the move with Neil, heads back into an area where Jobe Bellingham has continued his run from deep unchallenged (Image: Wyscout)

Pritchard meets Struijk’s clearance with a wonderful cushioned header in the direction of Jobe, whereby his continued run has put him in pole position in-between the two Leeds defenders.

Jobe keeps his composure despite the on-rushing Meslier’s best efforts and guides a header into the corner to hand Sunderland, and Dodds, what is arguably their best win of the season to date.

Jobe Bellingham's run goes untracked and he is able to head beyond Illan Meslier to earn Sunderland all three points (Image: Wyscout)

But four months is a long time in football. Much has changed since then. Leeds have gone from strength to strength whereas Sunderland have taken a backwards step – that eight point gap then now standing at a 34 point gap.

Leeds have lost just three games since that defeat at the Stadium of Light in December, but one of those came on Saturday against Coventry City. While, again, away from home, Sunderland could look at Coventry’s approach as to how to handle Leeds in their current guise, albeit Farke’s side have lost back-to-back games just once all season.

 

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Coventry scored early in both halves, first through former Sunderland loan striker Ellis Simms and then Haji Wright but Mark Robbins showed Leeds several hands in his defensive set-up right from the get-go.

The first minute of play saw Coventry fluidly switch between three different systems out of possession to try and deal with Leeds, something which continued to fluctuate throughout the game.

The first of those approaches was a 4-1-4-1 where Simms leads the attack with a flat four in midfield and Josh Eccles as the defensive midfielder as Glen Kamara has possession for Leeds in the centre-back area.

Coventry City showed Leeds a number of different systems in the opening minutes of their game, starting with a 4-1-4-1 when Glen Kamara was in possession dropping back into a centre-back area (Image: Wyscout)

That quickly transitions into a 4-3-2-1 as Kamara steps back into a defensive midfield role himself when Ethan Ampadu has possession.

What’s worth noting is how aggressive Leeds’ set-up is here. Ampadu and Rodon are in the centre-back positions while full-backs Junior Firpo (left) and Gray (right) are well advanced as wide midfielders.

Coventry transition as Ben Sheaf steps up to join Callum O’Hare to form two No.10s behind Simms, with now a flat midfield three in behind.

Coventry transition into a 4-3-2-1 when Glen Kamara moves back into midfield with Ethan Ampadu in possession. This also shows how aggressive Leeds are in their approach given the distance and positioning of their centre-backs and full-backs (Image: Wyscout)

Again, though, Coventry show Leeds a different look as Kasey Palmer steps up on the left to join O’Hare and Sheaf as 10s. What allows this, though, is the discipline of full-back Milan van Ewijk knowing when to step into midfield from right-back to track Summerville. Below we see him do it to join Eccles after Palmer has stepped forward.

Coventry then quickly move into a 4-2-3-1 as Kasey Palmer steps forward with Glen Kamara over to the left. This is made possible by Milan van Ewijk operating as an inverted full-back and stepping into midfield as part of a holding two alongside Josh Eccles to track Crysencio Summerville - this is a trait Sunderland have used with Trai Hume often stepping in-field from his right-back area this season (Image: Wyscout)

The inverted full-back role of van Ewijk is something Dodds may take particular interest in given how Sunderland have utilised Hume this season. The Northern Irishman has often found himself tucking inside from the right-back area to add an additional body in midfield and attack and with Coventry’s success here, Dodds could hope for similar.

It won’t be easy, however. Leeds average 58 per cent possession in games this season, behind only Leicester City and Southampton, and were able to play through Coventry, irrespective of their fluctuating systems, on this occasion.

As we saw in the reverse fixture, though, Leeds do over-commit bodies forward in their risk-reward brand of football – a style which has served them tremendously well this season given their fight for the title.

Coventry’s second goal from Wright is similar in some ways to the goal Sunderland profited from through Jobe in December as they spring an attack through van Ewijk and Palmer – the full-back getting the better of Summerville from a corner to lead the counter-attack in its initial phase.

Coventry's second goal came on the break, similar to Sunderland's as Milan van Ewijk gets the better of Crysencio Summerville to set up a two-on-two with Kasey Palmer (Image: Wyscout)

Leeds get numbers back pretty well once more, as van Ewijk holds things up before playing back to Eccles, similar to Huggins and Neil for Sunderland’s goal.

Meanwhile, as we saw from Jobe’s deep run, Wright is able to run unchallenged through the centre from deep in-between Gray and Rodon.

Leeds get decent numbers back to deal with the break as Milan van Ewijk holds play up before passing back to Josh Eccles. Again, however, it is the deep run from midfield which goes untracked by Haji Wright which causes Leeds problems (Image: Wyscout)

Eccles’ cross is perfectly flighted into the path of Wright who doesn’t have to break stride in-between the right-back and right-sided centre-back for Leeds.

Josh Eccles' cross is weighted perfectly for Haji Wright who, like Jobe Bellingham, has managed to time his run through the Leeds defence from deep to find himself in on goal (Image: Wyscout)

The only question was whether Wright could provide the finish as he pokes out a leg ahead of Meslier’s scramble to find the corner of the net and double Coventry's lead, as Robbins' side inflicted a first league defeat on Leeds in 2024.

Haji Wright gets to the ball ahead of Illan Meslier to double Coventry's lead and inflict a first defeat in 2024 on Leeds (Image: Wyscout)

Is this a weakness for Leeds? Potentially.

Sunderland will need to stay in the game for as long as they can and remain supremely disciplined out of possession. But these deep runs are an avenue Leeds have shown a vulnerability to against Sunderland and in their most recent defeat.

“The Championship is a brutal and relentless league,” said Dodds. “There's so many results every week, you could check the results on a Saturday and there will be one or two results which will be an eyebrow raiser. That being said, I think Coventry are a really good team, so the result doesn't surprise me completely.

“I do think Leeds are one of, if not the best team in the league and I said that when we played them previously, earlier in the season. You can read into they lost the last game, they won the last game, the reality is they're a really good team.

“Regardless of their previous results, whether they've lost five on the bounce or won five on the bounce, the reality is, the players they put on the pitch are Premier League quality. Regardless of the previous game, we know, all of us, whoever starts is going to have to be right at it. They're going to have to perform 100 per cent to give us a successful result.”

At least Dodds knows he has a blueprint for how to beat this Leeds team.