“It’s been a heck of a ride. But I thought we were going to ride it all the way to the Premier League.”
The words of Paul Heckingbottom following Sheffield United side's narrow defeat to Nottingham Forest in the 2021/22 Championship play-off semi-finals. Steve Cooper's Tricky Trees reaching the final with a 3-2 win on penalties after a 3-3 aggregate scoreline, going on to win promotion.
Many outsiders expected the Blades to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking, following their relegation from the top flight the season prior. A failure on Heckingbottom's behalf or fine margins? Blades' fans are perhaps best positioned to answer that.
READ MORE: What Will Still can bring to Sunderland after Reims exit
Fast forward 12 months on from defeat at the City Ground, Heckingbottom had delivered on his promise and had taken Sheffield United back to the promised land finishing as runners up in the Championship. Despite being among the favourites, it was far form plain sailing off the pitch.
The Blades were hit with a transfer embargo in the winter of the 2022/23 campaign, but that didn't stop them and Burnley running riot in the second tier. You would have forgiven them for suffering from some sort of play-off hangover after the agonising penalty shootout defeat, but Heckingbottom's men made it look easy at times.
Dominant displays and unbeaten runs cemented their place as automatic promotion contenders from the off. A dream for many, a reality for few. A 2-0 win over West Brom on April 26th, confirming their return to the Premier League.
Heckingbottom's rollercoaster with the Blades didn't end there. The return to the Premier League was a dismal one. Forced to sell his two best players in Sander Berge and Iliman N'Diaye, he was sacked in December 2023 with the Blades rooted to the foot of the Premier League table.
Out of work since then, he's emerged as one of the candidates linked with the vacant head coach position at the Stadium of Light. A two-time promotion winner with Barnsley and then the Blades, what could he bring to Wearside as head coach this summer?
Goals were never an issue for Heckingbottom's side, whether that was scoring them or keeping them out at the other end.
Looking back at their 22/23 promotion campaign, Sheffield United had the third-highest average in terms of goals scored-per-game at 1.59, behind Burnley (1.89 goals-per-game) and Middlesbrough (1.75 goals-per-game.)
They scored three or more goals on nine occasions and only failed to score in nine of their 46 fixtures last season.
The Blades had an xG of 1.43 and averaged 13.72 shots per 90. They also had 2.48 high press shots per 90 and a set piece xG of 0.39. They scored 73 goals the third-highest in the league.
Heckingbottom's side also excelled defensively. They boasted the second lowest average for goals conceded-per-game and had the joint second-best defensive record, conceding just 39 goals across the Championship season.
Their xG conceded was 0.86 per 90, with an xG/shot of 0.09. They faced an average of 9.96 shots per 90 and only conceded 0.93 counter-attacking shots. They also faired well when defending set pieces - their xG conceded from set pieces was just 0.2.
While Sunderland may not have hit the heights of last season, their defensive record this season acts as a platform to build on - not too dissimilar to Heckingbottom's time at Bramall Lane.
The Black Cats have the fifth-best defence in the Championship conceding 54 goals, 15 more than the Blades during their promotion winning campaign. Worth baring in mind nine of those came in defeats to Blackburn Rovers and Southampton in the final few months of the season.
Sheffield United’s xG trendline further highlights how impressive they were at both ends of the pitch across the entire campaign. The trendline works over a 10-game rolling average and shows how a team performs relative to their xG for and against.
Sheffield United created better goal scoring opportunities than their opponents across the entire season. In fact, their expected goals conceded never reached above 0.96 after returning from the winter break for the World Cup in Qatar.
The Blades were placed under a transfer embargo in January, making the continuation of that form even more impressive. Unable to add to their squad to bolster their promotion push, they still finished second and reached the semi-final of the FA Cup where they were beaten by Manchester City.
Player experience played a big part of that promotion push, five of their six players who played over 3000 minutes last season were aged 25+ with IIiman Ndiaye being the outlier. Their youngest player that season Sai Sachdev (18) played just 22 minutes.
Compare that with how Sunderland have operated this season (23/24) and there's a stark difference. Chris Rigg (16) has played 890 minutes for the Black Cats this season and Jobe Bellingham (18) has played 3925 minutes, more than any Sheffield United’s player's aged 20 and under in the season they were promoted - combined.
This year, Sunderland lost most of their older, more experienced players, such as Pritchard, Gooch, and Batth who all played over 2500 minutes the season prior. They also had to make do without Corry Evans for all but three matches this season.
The Wearsiders' average squad age has also dropped this season, down from 24.4 last season to 23 this campaign; Sheffield United’s average age was 27.5.
Heckingbottom's Blades had fewer players aged under 25 during their promotion season. They used 17 players younger than 25, eight of whom played less than 100 minutes of football.
Sunderland’s squad this season has 25 players that are younger than 25, with only three of them playing less than 100 minutes this season, the majority of them playing over 300 minutes for the Black Cats.
Experience no doubt played it's part in Sheffield United making Bramall Lane a tough place to visit under Heckingbottom last season. Of their 11 losses, just three came at home, and they picked up 51 of their 91 points at home.
While Sheffield United’s older squad and experience helped them battle it out for promotion to the Premier League, their ageing squad has also played a part in their Premier League struggles.
READ MORE: What Rene Maric would bring to Sunderland as head coach
Sunderland themselves has a good year in 22/23, a sixth-place finish, and a narrow defeat in the playoff semi-finals. But how did the Black Cats compare as in a head-to-head against the Blades?
Defensively, Sunderland conceded more shots per 90, 12.54 vs 9.96 and had a higher xG against at 1.06, 0.2 higher than Heckingbottom’s side.
They also conceded 55 goals last year, 16 more than the Yorkshire side. The Black Cats shipped four goals twice and five goals on one occasion, something Sheffield United did not.
In an attacking sense, Sunderland had a lower xG, xG per shot and fewer shots. They did take more counter-attacking shots per 90. Despite this Heckingbottom’s side only scored five more goals than Sunderland that season.
When the two sides went head-to-head Sheffield United were the victors winning 2-1 on both occasions. The Black Cats had a different manager for each occasion.
"In the first half we weren't as composed on the ball as we wanted to be," Heckingbottom said after the victory at Bramall Lane back in August 2022. "Credit to Sunderland, they stepped onto us and took risks. Fair play to them.
"It's a red card but then you want to compound that, and we did that. We needed to be better in the second half and we were. We showed a lot more composure, moved it a lot quicker and, before you know it, then you've got bodies up the pitch and you can start to score the goals that we did.
"The problem is, when you give away a goal away like that, it just changes the dynamic."
Dan Neil was sent off in the first meeting between the two sides putting them on the back foot for much of the game.
The Blades had 61 per cent possession, 22 shots to Sunderland’s four, an 84.3 per cent pass accuracy to the Wearsiders' 73.6 per cent.
The Blades' first goal against Sunderland back in August 22, is a set piece header from Anel Ahmedhodzic, while the second - which is pictured below - is a great example of a driving run from the centre-back, who grabs an assist for Max Lowe.
His run goes untracked and a brilliant through ball from Oliver Norwood splits the defence to find Ahmedhodzic in a dangerous area, his cutback tapped into the back of the net by the advanced Lowe. A move started and finished by defenders.
We're yet to see whether Heckingbottom will maintain that style of play we're accustomed to seeing with the Blades, given he's not had another job since leaving Bramall Lane.
Recommended reading:
The former Sunderland academy defender has a history on Wearside which may appease some, but he may not be a name that would get fans jumping out of their seats. His history of promotion from the Championship a clear standout point on his CV.
Heckingbottom appears to be be more in the mould of Alex Neil and Tony Mowbray, but the recent Michael Beale appointment suggests the club will explore different avenues this summer.
Will Still, Rene Maric, Danny Rohl and Bo Svensson are among those shortlisted by the club who would all fit that head coach mould.
Read the rules here